"Florence is in the midst of an impressive rapid intensification cycle, and is destined to strengthen into a very dangerous Category 4 hurricane by Tuesday as it heads towards the Southeast U.S. Coast. Florence is likely to make landfall on Thursday evening or Friday morning on the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina, and the odds continue to increase that Florence will stall on Friday and meander near or over the coast for several days, making the hurricane a devastating rainfall and coastal flooding threat."
Additionally, he writes:
"The models continue to come into better agreement on the track and speed of Florence, and on Monday morning, all of the forecasts from our top five models agreed that Florence would hit North Carolina or South Carolina on Thursday evening or Friday morning. The exact location of Florence's landfall is still fuzzy, as the average error in a 3-day and 4-day NHC forecasts are about 120 miles and 160 miles, respectively. While we do still have a few members of the GFS and European ensemble forecasts predicting that Florence will stall just off the coast and never make landfall, I put the odds of a Florence landfall on the U.S. East Coast at 90%."
The center of the forecast track *at this point* has the hurricane roughly centered over us as Cat 1. We need to watch carefully.
If you want to read Masters' complete post it's at
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