Dodged the bullet in Hoke

The latest (and final) advisory from Freddy Johnson, director of the Hoke Sheriff's Office Emergency Management division:

Again we managed very well here in Hoke County over the weekend,  and below is the summary from today's NWS briefing slides.  The Summary speaks for itself – Enjoy the rest of the week and most certainly be safe in all your endeavors.  

 

NWS - Summary, Highlights, & Climate

•  NC  really dodged a bullet!!!!

•  Widespread 3-6 inches of rainfall will help alleviate the drought conditions.

•  Today(Monday)will be the last gloomy/drizzly day!!!

•  Sunny skies FINALLY return on Tuesday-

Wednesday!

•  Seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the week…continuing into the weekend.

•  Weak cold front will move through Central NC late Friday/Friday night…bringing light 

precipitation chances to the area.

Latest info from EMS

From Freddy Johnson, director of Emergency Management at the Hoke Sheriffs Office:

  So far we have fared very well here in Hoke County.  We experienced some minor power outages that were quickly mitigated by the Power Company.  We had reports of just 3 trees down with another tree down due to a motor vehicle accident.  The eastern part of Hoke County remains under a flash flood watch until 8 PM Sunday.  Rockfish Creek is at flood stage and with the additional rain predicted for tomorrow could pose a problem for possible flooding in our eastern part of the county.  My staff is out checking our Lake levels as well as our earthen dams to see what the affects will be with the additional participation expected tomorrow.  (A dam breached early this morning in South Carolina bordering Brunswick County the water went down stream forcing evacuations in both SC and Brunswick County North Carolina they have quite a mess there with Emergency Service Workers busy with evacuations, security and Sheltering operations) 

 

According to the NWS we can expect maybe another 2 to 2.5 inches of rain tomorrow.  With hit and miss or very isolated rain reported for the remainder of today.  

 

Depending on where you live within Hoke County the rain amounts vary.  Here at our office according to our DAVIS Weather Station have received 8.65 inches of rain since the storm started on 9-24-2015, with 3.86 inches of that amount in October. 

Sent from my iPhone

Saturday 11 AM NWS Weather Briefing

Good morning everyone –

 

Just finished our Eastern Branch Office conference call and I wanted to provide a quick update.  So far we have fared very well here in Hoke County.  We experienced some minor power outages that were quickly mitigated by the Power Company.  We had reports of just 3 trees down with another tree down due to a motor vehicle accident.  The eastern part of Hoke County remains under a flash flood watch until 8 PM Sunday.  Rockfish Creek is at flood stage and with the additional rain predicted for tomorrow could pose a problem for possible flooding in our eastern part of the county.  My staff is out checking our Lake levels as well as our earthen dams to see what the affects will be with the additional participation expected tomorrow.  (A dam breached early this morning in South Carolina bordering Brunswick County the water went down stream forcing evacuations in both SC and Brunswick County North Carolina they have quite a mess there with Emergency Service Workers busy with evacuations, security and Sheltering operations)

 

According to the NWS we can expect maybe another 2 to 2.5 inches of rain tomorrow.  With hit and miss or very isolated rain reported for the remainder of today. 

 

Depending on where you live within Hoke County the rain amounts vary.  Here at our office according to our DAVIS Weather Station have received 8.65 inches of rain since the storm started on 9-24-2015, with 3.86 inches of that amount in October. 

 

Enjoy the remainder of your weekend and be safe in all you’re activities – Unless there is a significant event this may be our last weekend update.  NC EM has canceled all conference calls for tomorrow –

 

As always my numbers are listed should you have any questions -  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Update on flooding

From the National Weather Service in Wilmington:

AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...MOSAIC RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA ARE  TRENDING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE FORECAST EXPECTATION OF A SPATIAL  SHIFT IN THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS ALONG A CHARLESTON TO COLUMBIA TO  GREENVILLE SC TRACK. A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER WILL REMAIN INTACT  ACROSS SE NC AND NE SC AS GROUNDS ARE EXCEEDINGLY SOGGY AND ANY  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RAPIDLY LEAD TO DRAINAGE WOES. APPEARS  SE NC WILL EXPERIENCE A LULL THIS MORNING AS PROBLEMATIC RAINS  SHIFT TOWARD CENTRAL AND WESTERN SC. THE ALLEVIATION OF RAINFALL  HOWEVER LOOKS TO BE BRIEF AS ADDITIONAL TORRENTS OFF THE OCEAN  MIGRATE LANDWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. SIGNALS IN  SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER BREAK IN +SHRA MAY UNFOLD  TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN ONSLAUGHT OF DOWNPOURS INTO EARLY SUNDAY  MORNING.

and from The National Weather Service in Raleigh:

...ANY MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MINOR...    RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE HAW AND  UPPER NEUSE RIVER BASINS FOR MINOR FLOODING WHICH REACHES OR EXCEEDS  THE FLOOD STAGE BY A FEW FEET AT MOST. SEE WATER.WEATHER.GOV FOR  DETAILS AT INDIVIDUAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS.    THE AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN OVER EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED  TO PIVOT WEST...WITH MUCH LESS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.  EXPECTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO  RANGE FROM <2 INCHES IN THE EAST TO 3-4 INCHES IN THE WEST. THIS  REDUCTION IN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENT WILL  GREATLY REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING...  AS WHILE THE TOPSOIL (SEE 0-10CM & 0-200CM RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE  FROM NASA HTTP://WEATHER.MSFC.NASA.GOV/SPORT) IS APPROACHING  SATURATION...THE DEEPER SOIL COLUMN HAS NOT RECOVERED...CONTAINING  <50% OF THE MOISTURE REQUIRED FOR SATURATION. AS SUCH...THERE IS  STILL PLENTY OF STORAGE AVAILABLE IN THE DEEPER SOILS WHICH WILL  REDUCE RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINFALL RATE IS NOT HIGH.    THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...FOR AS NOTED  ABOVE...THE UPPER SOIL IS NEAR SATURATION SO HEAVIER RAINFALL WOULD  PRODUCE VERY SWIFT RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS OR LOW-LYING  AREAS...AND PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.    IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT  COULD ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER TROF AND BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON  SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL AMOUNTS  AT THIS TIME...AND WE WILL NEED TO ASSESS OUR HYDROLOGIC STATUS  AFTER THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAINFALL...STAY TUNED.

Weather Update

From Freddy Johnson, Emergency Services director:

Because the hurricane took a more easterly path the 11 AM forecast reports improvements to our local  forecast, we can however still expect several more inches of rain between now and late morning Saturday.  Small stream flooding as well as flooding in low and poor run off areas is still possible.  The forecast predicts dry and windy weather for Saturday afternoon and evening.   As for Sunday it's just a matter of where that final band of rain will wrap back around and how far inland it comes.   Wind gusts up to 30 MPH are still possible and with the saturated ground that's enough force to topple trees, therefore wind gust remain a concern.  Again this will continue to be mainly a rain event for us with the associated and previously mentioned safety concerns and should not be a major impact on work related issues.  

1 in 1000 year event

From Weather Underground:

An extremely strong conveyor belt of moisture will stream into the Carolinas over the next several days, aided by moisture from Hurricane Joaquin as it turns to the north in the Atlantic Ocean. While the higher elevations of South Carolina will experience the most rain, upwards of 18 inches of rainfall will fall on parts of the Carolinas. This could create an historic flooding event that NOAA is calling a 1 in 1000 year event. Residents are urged to take precautions to protect life and property.

Flash Flood Watch

From the National Weather Service:

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 8 PM EDT this evening
through Sunday evening... 

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of central North Carolina... including the following 
  Alamance... Anson... Chatham... Cumberland... Davidson... Durham...  
  Edgecombe... Forsyth... Franklin... Granville... Guilford...  
  Halifax... Harnett... Hoke... Johnston... Lee... Montgomery...  
  Moore... Nash... Orange... person... Randolph... Richmond...  
  Sampson... Scotland... Stanly... Vance... wake... Warren... Wayne 
   ... and Wilson. 

* From 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday evening

* storm total rain... widespread 3 to 6 inches with locally higher
  amounts possible... especially across the western Piedmont.

* Timing... heavy rain will spread west into the coastal plain
  overnight and into the central Piedmont Friday morning. The
  heavy rain will gradually shift westward into the western
  Piedmont through the day on Friday and into Friday night. 

* Wind... sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph
  will be possible Friday and again on Saturday.

Precautionary/preparedness actions... 

A Flash Flood Watch means conditions may become favorable for
flash flooding. Residents living in flood prone areas should
closely monitor the forecast for this weekend... and be prepared
to take action if flooding occurs or flash flood warnings are
issued.

Latest Rainfall Estimates

Latest rainfall estimates for three days from the National Weather Service:

5 Inches of Rain Possible

From The National Weather Service… heavy rain possible

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...  AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN MID TO UPPER  TROUGH...A LINGERING FRONT/TROUGH AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM  JOAQUIN WILL CREATE AN UNSETTLED FORECAST WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS  AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE  DURATION AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AT TIMES...POTENTIAL FOR  UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN PLACES ACROSS THE  CAROLINAS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF FRIDAY.    OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS CLOSEST APPROACH OF JOAQUIN SAT EVENING  WHICH AT THIS POINT IS ROUGHLY 200 MILES OFF THE CAPE FEAR COAST.  THE LATEST GFS FORECAST HAS JUMPED FARTHER EAST WITH CLOSEST  APPROACH SAT NIGHT ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF CAPE FEAR WHILE THE  ECMWF WAS SLOWER AND FARTHER EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH  ON THE EXACT TRACK OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN...BUT EITHER WAY THIS  SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY. FOR NOW IT  LOOKS LIKE THE MID TO UPPER LOW WILL NOT PULL JOAQUIN INTO THE  CAROLINAS BUT WILL INSTEAD GUIDE IT UP TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE  OFF SHORE WATERS.